Infometrics newsletter - April 2019
APRIL 2019 Newsletter
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In this month’s newsletter, Brad Olsen sets out his reasons for being firmly against a cut to the official cash rate (OCR).

Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan looks at some of the key trends from the Infometrics forecasts released last week. While storm clouds are brewing, strong construction activity will keep economic growth stronger than previously expected over the next year.

We continue our ‘a day in the life of an economist’ series by interviewing Paul Barkle.

Finally, David Friggens looks at migration data in our 'Chart of the Month' to show Muslim migration to New Zealand is relatively low.

In this issue:

Sounding the alarm!

Building boom masks economy’s underlying problems

A day in the life of an Economist – Paul Barkle

Chart of the Month: Muslim migration is relatively small

Sounding the alarm!
image Since the Reserve Bank surprised markets with its shift towards an easing bias, the outlook for interest rates has been a constant source of speculation. But the timing of the shift in stance was curious – in our view, nothing fundamental had changed, and the Reserve Bank is sending out the entire fire brigade to rescue a kitten from a tree.
Building boom masks economy’s underlying problems
image Despite increasing storm clouds and general concern about the New Zealand economy’s prospects, Infometrics’ latest economic forecasts show GDP growth holding up well throughout the next year. We expect 3.1% growth in the year to June 2020. A recent resurgence in residential building consents, particularly in Auckland, is pivotal to that outcome.
A day in the life of an Economist – Paul Barkle

Paul Barkle has been at Infometrics since 2017, juggling both work as an economist and study. Paul works across a wide range of areas at Infometrics and was involved with updating models in our forecasts that were released last week.

This month we chat to Paul about a day in the life of an economist.

Chart of the Month: Muslim migration is relatively small
image Immigration is a tricky topic when we can’t agree on the numbers, and aside from that is an evergreen political hot potato. In light of recent events, David Friggens looks at Muslim migration to New Zealand.

That’s all for the month

That’s all for the month. Look out for our May newsletter where we will look beyond traditional economic indicators to examine regional wellbeing.

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